The U.S.-China relationship will probably shape the course of the 21st Century. In Destined for War scholar of international relations Graham Allison takes a historical approach based on the method of Greek historian Thucydides who wrote The History of the Peloponnesian War to speculate on the future of this fraught relationship. When the most powerful Greek state Sparta was challenged by Athens, it led to a destructive conflict that upended the ancient world. Allison sees a parallel with China emerging as an economic and military competitor to the United States. While no one can accurately predict what will happen, Allison uses historical analogies to provide perspective on a dauntingly complex and concerning relationship that will shape the future.
Destined for War documents the remarkable resurgence of China over the past 70 years. Most Americans are reluctant to realize the Chinese have not only caught up with the United States but surpassed it in many ways. Since 1980 China's economic has doubled every seven years. Allison estimates their economy will be the most powerful in the world - leaving the United States in the dust after 2024. China has already surpassed the United States in manufacturing, producing cars, and countless other consumer products with a specific advantage on cell phones. Their infrastructure is exploding with growth, skyscrapers are built in terms of weeks not months. In 2015 the 1300-ton Sanyuan Bridge was constructed in 43 hours! (13-14)
Economic power almost always translates to military power and China under Xi Jinping has embarked on expanding the military and is approaching parity with U.S. naval power in the Pacific. Their use of cyber weapons has already made waves would be used if conflict should ever occur. Xi's leadership has focused on rooting out corruption, instilling a nationalistic pride, maintaining the economic growth, and establishing China as the dominant power in Asia. With a growing fleet and increasingly assertive gestures towards the United States many believe a war is likely within the next 20 years.
Allison provides sound analysis throughout on the possible likelihood of war. He identifies 16 instances in history when an established great power has been challenged by a rising power. The statistics suggest war is likely since only four ended peacefully (75% chance of conflict). Cultural differences between America and China are also a factor since both believe in their own superiority which makes a misunderstanding more likely. Chinese society emphasizes hierarchy and "knowing one's place," while Americans emphasize individuality. Xi envisions China as a superior alternative to Western democracy.
Despite the ominous assessment one gets from history, Allison believes a possibility exists for the two nations to become partners. Domestic politics are crucial. China's internal problems revolve around preserving a traditional society in a world driven more and more by digital technology. Meanwhile America under Trump witnessed democracy undergo major strain and the threat has by no means disappeared with his exit from office. While the 2020 election of Joe Biden suggest a majority of Americans still believe in truth and democracy, 74 million Americans were solidly behind Trump's anti-democratic rhetoric and actions. The January 6, 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters denied the country a peaceful transfer of power and most Republicans continue to believe the big lie of a rigged election. China is watching closely.
With slim majorities in Congress, Biden has passed massive relief bills in the wake of the pandemic with no GOP support. Whether the house divided era in America will calm down or flare up will directly influence the China relationship. Americans remain unprepared psychologically on the challenges posed by China and may take a Sputnik type event to change perceptions before its too late.
There are many flashpoints for a China/US confrontation that could spiral into a shooting war, Taiwan or the South China Sea are the most likely places. Trouble in North Korea would also likely lead to a confrontation. The prospect of a war is just as apocalyptic of a full-scale war between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War. Cyber weapons would certainly be used, attacks on power grids, banking systems, and broadband networks would happen within 24 hours of conflict. Space would likely be another front in the war as each side attacks each other's satellites. As to the nuclear question, each side also has the ability to destroy each other many times over.
Allison takes comfort from the fact that the Cold War never went hot. A realist, Allison argues containment and deterrence worked in the long term in preventing a third world war. Both sides realized going to war would result in their self-destruction, so they found a way to coexist however imperfect. As awful as they were, wars in Korea and Indochina remained limited. While there were many close calls such as the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Middle East War, and the Able Archer Exercises of 1983 neither side ever went through with the unthinkable. Did we survive by blind luck? Or did creative diplomacy work?
Allison argues America must reconfigure its China policy through creativity and realism harkening back to the containment policies developed by George Kennan in the late 1940s. Policymankers will have to make concessions with China, while at the same time find areas of common ground and establish rules of conduct - the parallel being arms control during the Cold War. If America can reinvigorate its troubled democracy, it could also provide a viable alternative to the China (and Russian) model.
Destined for War is thought provoking use of history to make sense of current events. Yet studying history never tells anyone what decision to make, it's merely a guide. China's rise is a world historical event, far more significant than the rise of the Soviet Union and other great powers throughout history. Relations with China have worsened since the book was published in 2017 and it will be one of the key challenges facing the Biden administration which has yet to venture too far from its predecessors. The book demands one ponder the future and the potentially unnerving existential arc of this century.
